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本文通过对中国出口贸易增长与汇率波动的实证分析确定两者之间的数量关系,探讨汇率变化能否为中国出口贸易带来竞争优势。本文用因子分析法确定出主成分,再进行回归建模,并考察汇率指数项的贡献率,认为汇率波动对中国贸易出口的影响有限,中国没有因此带来出口贸易竞争优势,那种认为依靠汇率贬值来获得出口竞争优势的看法与事实不符。中国外贸出口的推动力和竞争优势主要来自国内经济体制改革以及外向型产业投资的迅速增长。
This essay determines the quantitative relationship between the growth of China’s export trade and exchange rate fluctuations and explores whether the change of exchange rate can bring competitive advantages to China’s export trade. In this paper, the principal component is determined by factor analysis, and regression modeling is carried out. The contribution rate of exchange rate index items is also investigated. It is considered that exchange rate fluctuations have a limited impact on China’s trade exports. China has not brought competitive advantages in export trade. The devaluation of the exchange rate to gain an export competitive advantage does not match the reality. The driving force and competitive advantage of China’s foreign trade exports mainly come from the rapid growth of domestic economic reform and investment in export-oriented industries.