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5月下旬,市场流动性受到季节性财政存款上缴和半年末时点的双重挑战,资金价格逐步上升,但进入6月,随着季节性因素逐渐消退,资金面有望再次回归较为宽松的状态。汇丰公布的5月中国制造业PMI初值回升至49.7,创5个月新高,显示制造业景气度回升。随后将于6月初公布的出口、CPI、工业数据也可能略有回升,尽管房地产数据短期或仍低迷,但综合判断,市场对经济的悲观预期可能逐步减缓。政策面上,央行政策短期内难以转向,对流动性仍只是适度调节。
In late May, liquidity in the market was challenged by seasonal financial deposits surrender and the end of late-semester. Capital prices gradually increased. However, as the seasonal factors subsided gradually, the capital market is expected to once again return to a more relaxed state. HSBC announced in May the Chinese manufacturing PMI initial value rose to 49.7, a five-month high, indicating that the manufacturing boom rebounded. Subsequently announced in early June exports, CPI, industrial data may also pick up slightly, although the real estate data is still short-term or sluggish, but judging from the market, the market’s pessimistic expectations of the economy may gradually slow down. On the policy side, the policy of the central bank is difficult to shift in the short term and liquidity is still only modestly adjusted.