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武器装备体系演化是武器装备体系建设过程的表现,对演化的规律进行评估与分析有助于支撑武器装备体系建设规划的制定。首先分析了武器装备体系演化的内涵,提出了按时间进行离散化的评估与分析思路。然后,在能力需求演化、作战能力演化建模的基础上,建立了作战效能演化的评估模型。其次,分析了体系费用的构成,建立了费用演化的评估模型。最后,从装备系统更替、作战能力与能力需求的匹配、体系费用与体系投入的匹配等角度研究了综合分析方法。所附算例说明了文中方法的可行性。
The evolution of the weapon and equipment system is the manifestation of the process of building the weapon and equipment system. To evaluate and analyze the evolution law helps to support the formulation of a plan for the construction of the weapon and equipment system. Firstly, it analyzes the connotation of the evolution of weaponry system and puts forward the idea of discretization assessment and analysis according to time. Then, based on the evolvement of capability requirement and evolutionary modeling of operational capability, an evaluation model of operational effectiveness evolution is established. Secondly, it analyzes the composition of system cost and establishes the evaluation model of cost evolution. Finally, the comprehensive analysis method is studied from the perspectives of the replacement of equipment system, the matching of combat capability and capability requirement, the matching of system cost and system input. The attached examples illustrate the feasibility of the method in this paper.