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[目的]了解舟山市大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))对居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数的影响。[方法]收集2014年舟山市居民循环系统疾病死亡数据、大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2)资料以及气象数据(平均气温和相对湿度),采用广义相加模型分析PM_(2.5)与当地居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数之间的关系。[结果]2014年舟山市PM_(2.5)日均浓度为31.22μg/m3,符合GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》中污染物浓度限值的一级标准,空气质量总体较好。在寒冷季节(1—4月和11—12月)的3种大气污染物浓度均较高,且与总人群的循环系统疾病日死亡人数和≥65岁居民的循环系统疾病日死亡人数的高峰期重叠。全年死于循环系统疾病的人数共2 120人,85%以上为≥65岁居民(老年人)。模型拟合结果显示:PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m~3,总人群的循环系统疾病死亡风险增加2.46%(95%CI:0.36%~4.55%)。PM_(2.5)在滞后2天时对总人群尤其是≥65岁居民的循环系统疾病死亡的影响更大。与温暖季节(5—10月)相比,这一效应在寒冷季节较明显。[结论]舟山市PM_(2.5)对居民尤其是老年人循环系统疾病日死亡有一定的影响,该效应在寒冷季节强于温暖季节。
[Objective] To investigate the influence of fine particulate matter (PM_ (2.5)) in Zhoushan City on the number of deaths caused by diseases on residents’ circulatory system. [Methods] The mortality data, airborne pollutants (PM 2.5, SO 2, NO 2) and meteorological data (average temperature and relative humidity) of residents in Zhoushan City were collected in 2014. The generalized additive model was used to analyze the data of PM 2.5, And local residents of the circulatory system disease deaths between the number. [Result] The daily average concentration of PM_ (2.5) in Zhoushan City was 31.22μg / m3 in 2014, which accorded with the first class standard of the limit of pollutant concentration in the Ambient Air Quality Standard of GB 3095-2012, and the air quality was generally good. The concentrations of the three air pollutants in the cold season (January-April and November-December) were high and were at the peak of the total number of deaths from circulatory diseases and the number of deaths from circulatory diseases of people aged 65 or older in the general population Period overlap. A total of 2 120 people died of circulatory diseases in the year. More than 85% were residents aged 65 or older (elderly). The results of model fitting showed that the risk of death from circulatory diseases increased by 2.46% (95% CI: 0.36% ~ 4.55%) for every 10 μg / m ~ 3 increase in PM 2.5 concentration. PM 2.5 (2.5) had a greater impact on the death of the circulatory disease in the general population, and especially in residents aged 65 and older, at 2 days lag. This effect is more pronounced in the cold season than in the warm season (May-October). [Conclusion] The PM_ (2.5) in Zhoushan City had a certain impact on the death of the residents, especially the circulatory system of the elderly. The effect was stronger in the cold season than in the warm season.