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基于心理学中的有限关注理论和前景理论,研究了管理层对正负盈余预告的时机披露策略,以及投资者对盈余预告性质和管理层披露策略的反应。研究发现,投资者对正负盈余预告信息的反应具有非对称性,投资者对负面预告反应要大于对正面预告的反应。相对于正面盈余预告,管理层对负面盈余预告更倾向于选择时机披露策略。管理层的时机披露策略会降低投资者对负面预告的反应程度,从而也降低了投资者对正负盈余预告反应的非对称性。
Based on the theory of limited attention and foreground in psychology, this paper studies management’s tactics of timing disclosure of positive and negative earnings forecasts and the reaction of investors to the nature of earnings warning and management’s disclosure strategy. The study found that investors reacted asymmetrically to the information of positive and negative earnings warnings, and investors reacted more to negative warnings than to positive ones. Compared with the positive earnings warning, management is more inclined to choose the timing disclosure strategy for the negative earnings announcement. Management’s timing disclosure strategy will reduce investors ’reaction to negative forecasts and reduce the asymmetry of investors’ reactions to positive and negative earnings warnings.