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对于我们从事预测未来、执行看来是不可能的任务的人来说,历史教训发挥着重要的影响力。好比船只的抛锚,它是稳定我们很容易被视为成败视乎运气的工作的重心。然而,过去曾发生很多对未来起不到真知灼见作用的无关重要事件。窍诀是认清哪些是最相关的历史教训。在全球经济的层面上,去年的情况尤其如是:很多宏观原则被粉碎,而一些经得起时间考验的关系则比预期的更见紧密。新年伊始,我们有必要盘点一下去年做出的预测有哪些正确,哪些不对。知错能改,善莫大焉。本着自我批判的精神,以下是我要谈的五个2003年的教训。第一个教训是关于政策拉力即政府利用传统反周期刺激政策,力求快速拉动呆滞的美国经济的能力。对我来说,这是一个痛苦的教训。我一直主张泡沫后美国经济将出奇地对双管齐下的财政和货币刺激政策无甚反应。我相信出现在上世纪90年代末的挥之不去的过剩问题,将削弱这些传统刺激措施的效力,让当局感到束手无策。美国经济在2003年上半年实现了相当于年率6%的高速增长,我得承认自己预测错了。通过对自己判断的事后检讨,现在眼前的错误有两个:首先,我忽略了在去年首
For those of us who are engaged in predicting the future and carrying out tasks that seem impossible, the lessons of history play an important influence. Like the anchor of a ship, it is the center of gravity that stabilizes work that we can easily see as success or failure depending on luck. However, in the past, there have been many unrelated important events that have had no insight into the future. The trick is to understand what is the most relevant historical lesson. At the global level, last year’s situation was especially so: many macro principles were shattered and some were more time-tested than expected. At the beginning of the new year, it is necessary for us to take stock of the forecasts made last year, which are correct and what is wrong. Known errors can change, good big Yan. In the spirit of self-criticism, here are the five lessons I learned from 2003. The first lesson is about the policy pull that is the government’s ability to use the traditional counter-cyclical stimulus to quickly pull the sluggish U.S. economy. To me, this is a painful lesson. As I have been advocating the bubble, the U.S. economy will be surprisingly unresponsive to the two-pronged fiscal and monetary stimulus. I believe the lingering excess problem that emerged in the late 1990s will weaken the effectiveness of these traditional stimulus measures and make the authorities feel helpless. The U.S. economy achieved a rapid growth of 6% per annum in the first half of 2003, and I have to admit that I had predicted it was wrong. After reviewing my own judgment, there are now two immediate mistakes: First, I neglected to say that at the beginning of last year