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目的探讨巢湖市平均温度对心血管疾病死亡人数影响的规律和特点。方法收集2008—2011年巢湖市居民心血管疾病死亡资料和同时期的气象数据与空气污染数据,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加Poisson回归模型,在控制长期趋势、空气污染和其他气象因素的影响后,定量分析平均温度对心血管疾病死亡人数的影响及其滞后效应。结果日平均温度对滞后5 d心血管疾病死亡人数的效应有统计学意义(P<0.01),其相对危险度为0.984(95%CI:0.982~0.997);平均风速滞后5d时的效应有统计学意义(P<0.01),平均风速的增加会导致心血管疾病死亡人数的上升。结论巢湖市心血管疾病死亡人数随平均温度的增加而呈下降趋势。
Objective To investigate the regularity and characteristics of the influence of average temperature on the death toll of cardiovascular diseases in Chaohu city. Methods The death data of cardiovascular diseases and the data of air pollution and air pollution in the same period collected from 2008 to 2011 in Chaohu were collected. The time series semi-parametric generalized additive Poisson regression model was used to monitor the long-term trend, air pollution and other meteorological factors After the impact, quantitative analysis of the average temperature on the number of cardiovascular deaths and its lag effect. Results The average daily temperature had a statistically significant effect on the number of deaths after 5 days of cardiovascular disease (P <0.01), and the relative risk was 0.984 (95% CI: 0.982-0.997). The mean wind lag 5 days was statistically significant Significance (P <0.01). An increase in average wind speed would lead to an increase in the number of cardiovascular deaths. Conclusion The death toll of cardiovascular diseases in Chaohu City showed a decreasing trend with the increase of average temperature.