论文部分内容阅读
利用协整检验和误差修正模型对1996—2013年的天然气消费和输气管道数据进行定量分析,协整分析发现天然气消费与输气管道之间存在正向的长期均衡性,而经误差修正模型分析后发现天然气消费会受到管道和自身短期波动效应的影响,比较发现短期波动效应比长期均衡效应更强烈,指出在天然气产业开发过程时,国家在注重管道长期均衡效应的同时更要注重短期波动影响。
The co-integration test and error correction model were used to quantitatively analyze natural gas consumption and gas pipeline data from 1996 to 2013. Cointegration analysis showed that there was a positive long-term equilibrium between natural gas consumption and gas pipeline. However, the error correction model After the analysis, it is found that the natural gas consumption will be affected by the short-term fluctuation effect of the pipeline and itself. Compared with the long-term equilibrium effect, it is found that the short-term fluctuation effect is more intense than the long-term equilibrium effect, pointing out that in the natural gas industry development process, influences.