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目的探讨趋势季节模型在出院人数预测中的应用。方法根据某院2003年~2007年统计资料,采用趋势季节法建立出院人数预测模型。结果建立趋势季节回归模型为:Y=3223.10+80.04t,方差分析结果P<0.05,显示该方程呈直线相关关系,预测值=季平均预测值×各季季节比率。结论该方法简便易行,预测效果好,可为医院管理决策提供依据。
Objective To explore the application of the trend season model in predicting the number of discharged people. Methods According to the statistics of a hospital from 2003 to 2007, the forecasting model of the number of discharged people was established by using the trend season method. Results The trend seasonal regression model was established as follows: Y=3223.10+80.04t, analysis of variance showed P<0.05, indicating that the equation had a linear correlation, and the forecast value=seasonal average forecast value×seasonal season ratio. Conclusion The method is simple, easy to predict, and has good prediction effect. It can provide a basis for hospital management decision-making.