论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨新疆乌鲁木齐地区2009-2013年慢性支气管炎患者急性发作情况与气象因素变化的相关性,为预防慢性支气管炎急性发作提供依据。方法收集新疆维吾尔自治区中医医院2009-2013年各月因慢性支气管炎急性发作住院治疗的本地患者7 761例次。同时收集乌鲁木齐市2009-2013年各月的平均气温、平均降水量、平均日照时数、平均风速、平均气压及月最高、最低温度差值。分析各气象因素与慢性支气管炎发病的相关性,利用多元逐步回归分析筛选出对慢性支气管炎发病有显著影响的气象因素,并建立回归方程。结果乌鲁木齐地区慢性支气管炎急性发作与月平均气温(r=-0.725)、平均日照时数(r=-0.605)、平均风速(r=-0.604)呈显著负相关;与平均气压(r=0.859)、平均空气湿度(r=0.618)及最高、最低温度差值(r=0.636)呈正相关,与月平均降水量(r=0.022)无显著相关性。采用多元线性回归的逐步回归筛选法,得到慢支(Y)关于气压(X1)、日照时数(X2)的回归方程为:Y=-21 102.735+21.122X1+0.895X2。结论对乌鲁木齐地区慢性支气管炎急性发作住院患者人数产生影响的气候因素包括气温、气压、湿度、风速、日照时数等多个因素,月最大温差为新疆特有的影响慢性支气管炎急性发作的气象因素。
Objective To investigate the relationship between acute episodes of chronic bronchitis and changes of meteorological factors from 2009 to 2013 in Urumqi, Xinjiang, and to provide basis for preventing acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis. Methods A total of 7 761 cases of local patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region Hospital from 2009 to 2013 were collected. At the same time, the monthly average temperature, average precipitation, average sunshine hours, average wind speed, mean air pressure and monthly maximum and minimum temperature difference between 2009 and 2013 in Urumqi were collected. The correlation between each meteorological factor and the incidence of chronic bronchitis was analyzed. The multivariate stepwise regression analysis was used to select the meteorological factors that significantly affected the incidence of chronic bronchitis, and the regression equation was established. Results The acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis in Urumqi region was negatively correlated with the average monthly temperature (r = -0.725), average sunshine hours (r = -0.605) and mean wind speed (r = -0.604) ), Average air humidity (r = 0.618), and maximum and minimum temperature difference (r = 0.636), and had no significant correlation with monthly mean precipitation (r = 0.022). The regression equation of pressure (X1) and sunshine hours (X2) of chronic branch (Y) was obtained by the stepwise regression method of multiple linear regression: Y = -21 102.735 + 21.122X1 + 0.895X2. Conclusions The climatic factors that affect the number of hospitalized patients with acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis in Urumqi include temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours and other factors. The monthly maximum temperature difference is the unique meteorological factor affecting acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis in Xinjiang .