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山西省今年来正在进行经济转型,研究拉动经济增长的方式十分必要。消费作为经济增长过程中不可忽视的力量之一,而在总人口中农村人口又占了很大一部分,因此研究农村居民消费与经济增长关系的意义不言而喻。根据1978-2013年的山西省国内生产总值和农村居民消费的有关数据,在稳定的VAR模型构建的基础上,通过协整模型的运用以及其他的计量理论方法对山西省农村居民消费对经济增长的推动贡献作用进行了实证分析。结果表明:山西省农村居民消费同GDP间存在着稳定的均衡关系,并通过格兰杰检验,二者互为格兰杰原因,并且山西省农村居民消费会冲击山西省经济增长,对经济增长产生较大波动。山西省政府应当鼓励支持引导农村消费,以推动山西省经济增长。
Shanxi Province is in the process of economic restructuring this year and it is very necessary to study ways of stimulating economic growth. Consumption as one of the forces that can not be ignored in the process of economic growth, while the rural population accounts for a large part of the total population. Therefore, it is self-evident to study the relationship between rural resident consumption and economic growth. Based on the data of Shanxi Province’s GDP and consumption of rural residents from 1978 to 2013, on the basis of stable VAR model construction, through the use of cointegration model and other measurement theory, this paper analyzes the relationship between rural residents’ consumption and economy The contribution of growth to promote the role of an empirical analysis. The results show that there is a stable and equilibrium relationship between rural residents’ consumption and GDP in Shanxi Province and the Granger test, the two are Granger reasons. And the consumption of rural residents in Shanxi Province will impact the economic growth in Shanxi Province and the economic growth Produce greater volatility. Shanxi provincial government should encourage and support rural consumption guide to promote economic growth in Shanxi Province.