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“库兹涅茨假说”认为:在经济增长的整个长期过程中,收入差距的变动趋势,是按照一种“先上升后下降”“先恶化后改善”的“倒U型”轨迹进行的,该变动轨迹主要受经济增长这个单一变量的影响。库兹涅茨的“倒U假说”以及早期研究者们对其所做的理论解释和实证检验,大都是依靠英、美、荷、德等现代化先发国家的历史经验和具体数据,而这些国家的现代化道路都是“内源内生”型道路。然而,全球化背景下后发国家的现代化道路却是一种迥异于前者的“外源外生”型道路。本文截取了改革开放30余年来我国的数据资料,并利用统计模型对其进行了图表分析和回归分析。实证检测的结果是:对于我国来说,希望通过经济增长来自发缓解收入差距扩大的趋势、坐等库兹涅茨“倒U曲线”之“拐点”的到来的做法,不仅是无效的,甚至是危险的,这很可能使我国像一些拉美国家一样,造成贫富差距悬殊、社会严重分化的恶果,进而引发社会动荡,对经济社会的发展造成严重的影响,陷入“中等收入陷阱”。
“Kuznets hypothesis ” that: In the long run of economic growth, the changing trend of the income gap is in accordance with a “first rise and then fall” “first worsen and then improve ” U-shaped “trajectory, the change trajectory is mainly affected by the economic growth of a single variable. Kuznets’s ”inverted-U hypothesis“ and the early researchers’ theoretical explanations and empirical tests on them mostly rely on the historical experience and specific data of the modern and advanced countries such as Britain, the United States, the Netherlands, and Germany, The modernization path in these countries is ”endogenous“. However, the path of modernization in late-developing countries in the context of globalization is a ”exogenous“ exogenous path that is different from the former. This paper intercepts the data of our country over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, and uses the statistical model to carry on the chart analysis and the regression analysis. The result of the empirical test is that for our country, we hope that through economic growth, we will ease the trend of increasing income gap and wait for the arrival of Kuznets, ”inverted U-curve“ and ”turning point.“ Not only is it invalid This is likely to make our country, like some Latin American countries, causing the disparity between the rich and the poor and the result of the serious social division. This in turn will trigger social unrest and seriously affect the economic and social development. trap”.