猪价经过今年二月份以来两个季度的长期低迷,在第三个季度终于迎来一线曙光,特别是进入8月份以来,全国各地猪价先后出现一轮报复性反弹,目前基本已经脱离盈亏钱下方区域,进入盈利阶段。笔者估计,虽然反弹到目前已经后续乏力,但可望在此区间振荡维持到国庆节前后。而我以前在博文中提到的10~11月的低价风险,也在一定程度上会降低或被化解。这一判断依据是什么呢?因为这次反弹的主要原因除了传统的季节性因素外,今年极端性气候的影响功不可没。由于大多 After the long-term sluggishness of the two quarters since February this year, the price of pork finally ushered in a dawn in the third quarter. In particular, since the beginning of August, there has been a retaliatory rebound in pork prices across the country. At present, the pork price has basically been out of profit and loss The area below, into the profit phase. I estimate that, although the rebound has been followed by weakness, but is expected to remain in the oscillation before and after the National Day. The low-priced risk from October to November, which I mentioned in my previous post, will also be reduced or resolved to a certain extent. What is the basis for this decision? Because the main reason for this rally is the impact of the extreme weather this year, apart from the traditional seasonal factors. Due mostly