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探讨研发投入强度的演变规律,分析全球研发投入强度的变化趋势,总结中国研发投入强度的变化特征,确定中国研发投入强度的影响制约因素;采用GM(1,1)等维新息模型和趋势预测模型的组合预测模型预测“十三五”时期中国的研发经费支出,采用趋势预测法和多情景模拟预测法的组合预测模型对“十三五”时期中国的研发投入强度进行模拟预测,并从政府和企业研发投入角度提出保障实现2020年中国科技发展规划目标的政策建议。研究结果表明,从国际上看,多数创新型国家的科技发展在工业化初级阶段和工业化中级阶段带有政府主导的特征,政府R&D资金所占的比重大多超过40%。与国际相比,我国R&D经费中政府R&D资金所占的比重偏少,中国研发投入强度没有达到预期目标、偏离了研发投入强度的演变规律,且滞后于当前工业化程度,虽然我国政府对R&D经费的投入在逐年增加,但2003—2013年的10年间,我国政府的R&D经费支出占总量的比重仅达到20%~30%左右。“十三五”时期,我国在继续加大政府和企业R&D经费支出的基础上,预计2020年研发投入强度将超过2.5%的预期目标,达到2.6%~2.7%左右,中国有望从“世界科技大国”转变为“世界科技强国”。
This paper analyzes the evolution of R & D investment intensity, analyzes the trend of global R & D investment intensity, summarizes the changing characteristics of China R & D investment intensity, determines the impact of China R & D investment intensity constraints; Adopts the GM (1,1) China’s R & D expenditures in the “13th Five-Year Plan” period are predicted by the combined forecasting model of the model and the investment intensity of China’s R & D investment in the “13th Five-Year Plan” is simulated by the combined forecasting model of the trend forecasting method and the multi-scenario simulation forecasting method Forecast, and from the government and corporate R & D investment perspective to put forward to ensure the realization of China’s science and technology development plan in 2020 policy recommendations. The results show that in the international arena, the technological development in most innovation-oriented countries takes on the characteristics of government domination in the initial stage of industrialization and in the mid-stage of industrialization, and the proportion of government R & D funds mostly exceeds 40%. Compared with the international level, the R & D expenditure of our government is less than the proportion of R & D funds. The strength of R & D investment in China did not reach the expected target, deviating from the law of R & D investment intensity, and lagging behind the current degree of industrialization. Although our government’s R & D expenditure Investment has been increasing year by year. However, in the 10 years from 2003 to 2013, the government’s R & D expenditure accounted for only about 20% -30% of the total. On the basis of continuing to increase R & D expenditure by governments and enterprises during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, it is estimated that the R & D investment intensity in 2020 will exceed the expected target of 2.5% to reach 2.6% -2.7% “World Science and Technology Power” changes into “world science and technology power”.