建立了黄河下游河道纵剖面变化长期预测数学模型．对黄河下游河道在不同来水来沙条件下冲淤的发展趋势作了分析预报． The long-term prediction mathematical model of the longitudinal profile of the lower Yellow River has been established. The trend of the scouring and silting in the lower reaches of the Yellow River under different incoming water and sediment conditions was analyzed and forecast.