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针对延安市所处的地质地貌环境和条件的多样性、复杂性和变异性,泥石流沟的形成、发展直至消亡都受到很多因素的影响,形成一个较为复杂的泥石流灾害“模糊”系统。运用模糊综合评判法,确定植被覆盖率、岩性影响、主沟平均比降和暴雨强度等18个指标作为泥石流易发性的评价因子,对延安市11条泥石流沟的易发性进行评价。结果显示11条泥流沟每条沟内的固体堆积物都较丰富、坡降比大、如果雨量充沛,每条泥流沟均有不同程度爆发的可能性。
In view of the diversity, complexity and variability of the geological and geomorphological environment and conditions in Yan’an, the formation and development of the debris flow ditch until its demise are affected by many factors, forming a complex debris flow disaster fuzzy system. By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, 18 indicators such as vegetation coverage, lithology, average ratio of main channel and rainfall intensity were selected as evaluation factors for the susceptibility to debris flow, and the vulnerability of 11 debris flows in Yan’an City was evaluated. The results show that each of the 11 ditches of Mudougou is rich in solid deposits, and the slope-fall ratio is large. If there is abundant rainfall, each ditches of ditches may have different degrees of outbreak.