论文部分内容阅读
能源是国民经济最基本的物质基础之一,研究地区能源消费与经济增长的关系对于新疆的跨越式发展具有重要现实意义。运用协整理论,对1952～2009年新疆能源消费和经济增长相关数据的协整分析表明:能源中的煤炭消费量与国民生产总值是协整的,二者存在长期的均衡关系;进一步的格兰杰检验表明:经济增长与煤炭消费量之间是格兰杰单向因果关系,即经济的增长引起煤炭消费量的增加;误差修正模型表明国民生产总值与煤炭消费量之间存在不显著的短期误差修正机制;新疆的经济增长仍然是以大量消耗煤炭为基础,现有能源消费结构不合理,能源利用效率低。在此基础上提出相应的对策建议,以实现新疆的科学跨越。
Energy is one of the most basic material bases of the national economy. Studying the relationship between regional energy consumption and economic growth is of great practical significance for the leaping development of Xinjiang. Using the cointegration theory, the cointegration analysis of the data on energy consumption and economic growth in Xinjiang from 1952 to 2009 shows that the coal consumption in energy is in a co-ordinated relationship with the GNP, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. Granger test shows that there is Granger one-way causal relationship between economic growth and coal consumption, that is, economic growth leads to an increase in coal consumption. The error correction model shows that there exists a gap between gross national product and coal consumption Significant short-term error correction mechanism; Xinjiang’s economic growth is still based on a large number of coal consumption, the existing energy consumption structure is irrational, low energy efficiency. On this basis, we put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to realize the scientific leap in Xinjiang.