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笔者在对我国30个省份2000年~2010年的CO2排放量进行估算的基础上,将其与工业废气排放量、工业废水排放量和工业固体废物产生量作为环境质量指标,利用空间自相关检验的Moran’s I指数法分别检验了四项环境质量指标的空间自相关性。在空间相关性检验的基础上,以STIRPAT模型为理论基础结合空间回归模型研究了人口规模、人口结构、技术进步、产业结构等因素对四项环境质量指标的影响。结果表明:四项环境质量指标均存在着显著的空间自相关性;人口规模对各项环境质量指标的影响是正向的,人口年龄结构、城镇人口比重和家庭户规模对各项环境质量指标的影响是负向的,产业结构的优化和技术进步水平的提高都有助于减少各种污染物的排放量。
On the basis of estimating the CO2 emissions of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2010, the author uses the emissions of industrial gases, industrial wastewater and industrial solid waste as environmental quality indicators and makes use of the spatial autocorrelation test Moran’s I index method was used to test the spatial autocorrelation of the four environmental quality indicators. Based on the spatial correlation test and the STIRPAT model and the spatial regression model, the influences of population size, population structure, technological progress, industrial structure and other factors on four environmental quality indicators were studied. The results show that there are significant spatial autocorrelations among the four environmental quality indicators; the impact of population size on various environmental quality indicators is positive; population age structure, urban population proportion and household size have significant positive correlations with various environmental quality indicators The impact is negative, and the optimization of industrial structure and the improvement of technological advancement all help to reduce the emission of various pollutants.