一、早稻常规种预报模型早稻常规种选用78130品种建立预报模型。在60个变量中,经计算机显著性检验筛选后,40个变量被选入相应的预报模型(表2),进而建立了28个预报模型。1990年在3个苗情县预报84项次,并与实际观察值对比验证,经两值配对t测验,除了分蘖始期预报幼穗分化二期叶龄(Y_(36))、有效分蘖终止期预报最高分蘖期叶龄(Y_(45))、齐穗期预报理论亩产 First, the conventional rice early-type forecasting model Early rice conventional species selection 78130 varieties to establish a forecasting model. Of the 60 variables, 40 variables were selected for the corresponding prediction model (Table 2) after screening by computer significance test, and 28 prediction models were established. In 1990, 84 times were predicted in 3 Miaocheng counties and compared with the actual observed values. The results of bivalve t test showed that the effective tillering termination period (Y_ (36)) was predicted at the beginning of tillering stage, The leaf tillering age (Y_ (45)) at the highest tillering stage was predicted, and the theoretical yield per head was forecast