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基于“七一”冰川物质平衡、水文气象观测资料,结合DEM数据,初步建立了一套时间分辨率达1h、空间分辨率为15m的冰川表面分布式能量-物质平衡模型.模型考虑地形对太阳辐射的遮蔽效应,引入新的冰川反照率参数化方案,并发现分布式能量-物质平衡模型对气温垂直递减率、降水梯度、降水固/液态划分指标等参数较敏感.利用该模型对2007年6月30日20:00~10月10日12:00时段“七一”冰川粒雪线高度变化、物质平衡演变、融水径流状况及其对气候变化的响应等过程进行了模拟研究.结果表明,冰川物质平衡高度结构主要受反照率高度结构的影响,反照率大小直接影响冰川物质平衡水平.气候敏感性试验表明,物质平衡对气温变化非常敏感,它对气温变化的响应呈非线性特征;而物质平衡对降水量变化敏感性相对较弱,对降水量变化的响应是线性的.增温引起的冰川物质亏损量不能靠降低相同气温来得到弥补,物质平衡变化对气候变暖具有不可逆效应.气温升高1℃,即使降水量增加20%,“七一”冰川也会呈现较大的物质亏损状态.
Based on the data of the “71” glacier mass balance and hydrological meteorological observation data, a set of surface-distributed energy-matter balance model of glacier with a temporal resolution of 1 h and a spatial resolution of 15 m was established based on DEM data. A new glacial albedo parameterization scheme is introduced for the shadowing effect of solar radiation, and it is found that the distributed energy-matter balance model is sensitive to parameters such as vertical temperature decrease rate, precipitation gradient and precipitation solid / liquid fractionation index. Using this model, At 20:00 on June 30, 2007 and 12:00 on October 10, the process of snow level variation, material balance evolution, meltwater runoff and its response to climate change were simulated The results show that the height structure of glacial matter balance is mainly affected by the albedo height structure, and the albedo directly affects the material balance of the glacier.The climate sensitivity test shows that the material balance is very sensitive to the temperature change, and its response to the temperature change Non-linear characteristics; and the material balance is relatively weak sensitivity to changes in precipitation, the response to changes in precipitation is linear.Large warming caused material loss It can be obtained by reducing the temperature of the same make up, mass balance changes have irreversible effects on global warming. Temperature rises 1 ℃, even if precipitation is 20% increase, “seven ” will be showing large glacier material loss.