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预测产量和可采储量是油气田编制开发规划、设计调整方案以及分析开发动态等研究工作必不可少的重要内容。用数学模型或增长曲线方法可以对油气田产量变化的全过程进行描述。根据数理统计学中的F分布,在完成模型转化的推导中首次引入时间转化常数,建立了预测油气田产量和可采储量的新数学模型———F模型。推导了F模型产量、累积产量、最高产量及其发生时间的计算公式,其中的产量和累积产量公式分别用贝塔函数和不完全贝塔函数表达。由于F模型中包含4个常数,模型曲线调节余地较大,因此既适用于油气田产量呈单峰的情形,也适用于产量为纯递减的情形;4个模型常数采用重复线性回归方法求解,便于在计算机上实现。应用F模型描述冀中坳陷的任丘雾迷山组碳酸盐岩油田和岔河集下第三系砂岩油田的产量变化,结果表明,该模型适用范围广,有较好的实用价值。图3参6(朱亚东摘)
Predicted production and recoverable reserves are essential for oil and gas field development planning, design and adjustment programs as well as analysis and development of dynamic research work is an important part. The whole process of oil and gas field output changes can be described by mathematical models or growth curve methods. According to the F distribution in mathematical statistics, the time conversion constant is introduced for the first time in completing the model conversion, and a new mathematical model --- F model for predicting oil and gas fields output and recoverable reserves is established. The formula of yield, cumulative yield, maximum yield and its occurrence time of F model was deduced. The formulas of yield and cumulative yield were expressed by beta function and incomplete beta function respectively. Since there are four constants in the F model, there is a large room for adjustment of the model curve, so it is suitable for both oil and gas fields with single peak yield and pure decline. The four model constants are solved by the method of repeated linear regression On the computer. The F model was used to describe the changes of the yield of the Renqiu Wushanshan Formation carbonate oilfield and the Chaheji Tertiary sandstone oilfield in the Jizhong Depression. The results show that the model has wide application range and good practical value. Figure 3 reference 6 (Zhu Yadong pick)