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在1870年后,实际事件与科学发展相結合为人口理論和形式人口学的进展开辟了一个新时期。出生率下降的原因成为不少推测和争論的主题,同时人们把兴趣集中于出生差别現象。最突出一时的解釋是增进幸福論,如勒华-包娄等人认为,获取高生活水平或财富的欲望,推动夫妇限制他們子女的数字:家庭越幸福则家庭规模越小。在二十年代,皮尔重新肯定生物决定論假設并提出人口增长的数学公式。他假定整个人口的增长和个别有机体的增长相类似,人口增长以周期出現也和一切生命物质增长特征的规律变动相一致。最适度人口概念是从在一个最适度点上,特定人口量导致按人平均計算的最高生产力这一前提出发,得出进一步概念:如果人口量超过这个点,则地区人口过剩;相反,如果人口量低于最适度,则地区人口不足。形式人口学包含着“稳定人口”概念作为一个核心,凡是始終受到不变生命率长期作用的人口,称做“稳定”人口,在稳定人口中,出生率、死亡率和自然增长率总是保持不变,而且能够在数学上計算出来。目前美国出生研究中进行过两項重要的实地調查:第一項是在1955年由斯克里普斯人口研究基金会和米西根大学調查研究中心共同进行,第二項则在1957年由普林斯顿大学人口研究部进行;然而实地調查出生行为肯定有局限性。广泛結构人口理論之一,是近三十年期间发展起来而在文献上通称为人口过渡的理論,但这种理論的正确性近年来成为严重疑問。最近在美国,罗里默和台維斯应用結构函数研究方法来分析社会組織和文化规范的特殊方面。从社会学和历史上辯解的理論,则由德国的馬克肯洛特和瑞士的比克尔提出。
After 1870, the combination of actual events and scientific development opened up a new era for the progress of population theory and formal demography. The reasons for the declining birth rate have been the subject of much speculation and controversy, and people have concentrated their interest on the birth difference. One of the most prominent explanations is the promotion of happiness theory. For example, Leroy-Bauer believes that the desire to obtain a high standard of living or wealth and promote couples to limit their children’s numbers: the happier families are, the smaller the family size. In the 1920s, Peirl reaffirmed the biological determinism hypothesis and proposed a mathematical formula for population growth. He assumed that the growth of the entire population was similar to the growth of individual organisms, that the periodicity of population growth coincided with changes in the law characterized by the growth of all living things. The concept of the most modest population is based on the premise that, at a certain optimal point, the specific population leads to the highest productivity per capita, a further notion is reached: If the population exceeds this point, the population is overpopulated; on the contrary, if the population Less than the most appropriate amount, the local population is insufficient. Formal demography embraces the concept of “stable population” as a core. Anyone who has long been subject to the constant life-changing rate is called a “stable” population. In a stable population, birth rates, death rates and natural growth rates are always maintained Variable, and can be mathematically calculated. At present, there are two major field surveys conducted in US-born studies: the first was conducted jointly by the Scripps Population Research Foundation and the University of Michigan Research Center in 1955, and the second was conducted in 1957 by Princeton University Department of Population Studies; however, the field survey of births certainly has limitations. One of the widely-popularized demographic theories is the theory that has developed over the past three decades and is commonly referred to in the literature as the transition of population, but the correctness of such a theory has become a serious question in recent years. More recently in the United States, Roermer and Davis applied structural studies to analyze specific aspects of social organization and cultural norms. The theory of sociological and historical justification was proposed by Mark Kenlot of Germany and Bikel of Switzerland.