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为了合理进行整体叶盘多失效模式可靠性分析和准确描述各影响参数的重要程度,将智能算法与双重响应面方法相结合提出可靠性灵敏度分析的智能双重响应面方法 (Intelligent Dual Response Surface Method,IDRSM)。首先,建立IDRSM的数学模型,给出基于IDRSM的可靠性灵敏度分析的流程。然后,考虑流场和温度场作用,基于IDRSM对整体叶盘径向变形和应力两种失效模式进行可靠性分析和灵敏度分析。可靠性分析显示:当许用径向变形、许用应力的均值和标准差分别取3.8mm和76μm,690MPa和14MPa时,叶盘综合可靠度为0.9926。灵敏度分析显示:整体叶盘综合失效概率的主要影响因素为流速和转速,占叶盘总失效的92%。通过蒙特卡洛法、响应面法、极值响应面法、智能响应面法等四种方法比较显示:IDRSM能在保证计算精度的前提下提高计算效率。实例分析表明该方法在多失效模式综合可靠性灵敏度分析中的可行性和有效性,也为结构多失效模式可靠性优化开辟了有效途径。
In order to reasonably analyze the reliability of multi-failure mode of leaf disc and accurately describe the importance of each parameter, the intelligent dual response surface method (RSM) is proposed based on the combination of intelligent algorithm and dual response surface method. IDRSM). First, the mathematical model of IDRSM is established, and the process of reliability sensitivity analysis based on IDRSM is given. Then, considering the effects of flow field and temperature field, the reliability and sensitivity analysis of two failure modes of the global leaf disc radial deformation and stress are carried out based on IDRSM. The reliability analysis shows that the comprehensive reliability of the leaf disc is 0.9926 when the average allowable stress and the standard deviation are 3.8mm and 76μm, 690MPa and 14MPa, respectively. Sensitivity analysis shows that the main factors influencing the overall failure probability of leaf disc are flow velocity and speed, accounting for 92% of total failure of leaf disc. Four methods, Monte-Carlo method, response surface method, extreme response surface method and intelligent response surface method, show that IDRSM can improve computational efficiency under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of calculation. The case study shows that this method is feasible and effective in the comprehensive reliability sensitivity analysis of multi-failure modes and also opens up an effective way for the reliability optimization of multi-failure modes.