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运用Granger因果关系分析、协整检验方法,对1990~2012年沈阳工业化、城镇化与金融发展之间的互动关系进行实证检验分析。结果表明,沈阳城镇化、工业化与金融发展三者之间在短期和长期内具有不同程度的影响关系,经济工业化的发展大大促进了社会城镇化和整体金融发展;而整个社会金融体系发展有力地支持了城镇化进程,并且金融总量规模发展对城镇化提高的影响要比工业化影响大,但城镇化不是金融发展的直接推动力;金融组织体系效率低,社会储蓄到投资转化率不足是制约城镇化和工业化的障碍。据此,提出完善多元化的投融资体系,提高金融支持的力度;发挥城镇化和工业化的引领作用等策略。
Granger causality analysis and cointegration test were used to test the interactive relationship between industrialization, urbanization and financial development in Shenyang from 1990 to 2012. The results show that the urbanization, industrialization and financial development in Shenyang have different degrees of impact in the short and long term. The development of economic industrialization has greatly promoted the urbanization of society and the overall financial development. However, the development of the entire social financial system has been strongly Support the process of urbanization, and the impact of the development of the total financial scale on the urbanization has a greater impact on industrialization than urbanization, but urbanization is not the direct driving force of financial development; the low efficiency of the financial organization system and the insufficient social savings to investment conversion rate are constraints Barriers to urbanization and industrialization. Accordingly, it is proposed to improve the diversified investment and financing system, enhance the financial support and give play to the leading role of urbanization and industrialization.