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先谈谈影响对外贸易增长的几个基本因素。从市场需求的角度分析,世界货币基金组织预计今年的全球经济增长率将达到4.75%,其增长率远远高于去年的3.3%,这也是近十年来经济增长水平最好的一年,估计明年的经济增长水平仍将保持在较高的水平上。特别是美国经济仍然保持相当好的增长势头,德国今年第一第二季度的国民经济增长率分别达到了3.3%和3.1%。日本经济在积极的财政政策干预下已经开始逐步复苏,今年一季度,日本经济比上季度增长达到了2.5%,特别是日元零利率政策的调整对日本经济乃至亚洲经济均产生了一定的影响。另外,亚洲周边国家的经济也全面增长,因此,从国际上我国赖以生存的最大三个市场来分析,国际市场上对我国出口商品的需求还是相当大的,出口一定增长的外部环境良好。从国内供给方面的角度分析,国内商品供过于求的局面继续保持着。
First talk about several basic factors that affect the growth of foreign trade. From the perspective of market demand, the World Monetary Fund expects this year’s global economic growth rate will reach 4.75%, its growth rate is much higher than last year’s 3.3%, which is also the economic growth in the past decade the best year, it is estimated Next year’s economic growth will remain at a high level. In particular, the U.S. economy still maintained a fairly good momentum of growth. In the first quarter of this year, Germany’s national economic growth rate reached 3.3% and 3.1% respectively. Japan’s economy started to gradually recover under the active fiscal policy intervention. In the first quarter of this year, Japan’s economy grew by 2.5% over the previous quarter. In particular, the adjustment of the zero-interest-rate policy of the Japanese yen had a certain impact on the Japanese economy and even the Asian economy . In addition, the economies of neighboring countries in Asia are also growing in an all-round way. Therefore, from the perspective of the three largest international markets in which China depends for their survival, the demand for our country’s exports in the international market is still quite large. The external environment with certain growth in exports is good. From the perspective of domestic supply, the situation of over-supply of domestic commodities continues to be maintained.