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目的分析全国2006-2010年伤寒、副伤寒报告病例数据,应用季节趋势模型预测2011年的发病例数。方法应用SPSS 15.0和Excel软件拟合2006-2010年全国伤寒、副伤寒逐月报告发病人数的季节趋势模型。结果全国伤寒、副伤寒的发病情况呈逐年下降趋势,应用逐月报告发病人数建立的季节趋势模型差异有统计学意义(F=11.688,P=0.001),应用模型预测2011年全国伤寒、副伤寒的发病人数为12543例,较上年减少2169例。结论季节趋势模型充分考虑了疾病流行的长期趋势和季节性流行特点,拟合近年全国伤寒、副伤寒发病数据效果较好,可利用模型进行短期预测。
Objective To analyze the reported case data of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in China from 2006 to 2010 and to predict the number of cases in 2011 using the seasonal trend model. Methods SPSS 15.0 and Excel software were used to fit the seasonal trend model of the monthly incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in China from 2006 to 2010. Results The incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever showed a trend of declining year by year in China. The seasonal trend model established by using monthly report of incidence was statistically different (F = 11.688, P = 0.001). The model was applied to predict the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in 2011 in China. Of the incidence of 12543 cases, a decrease of 2169 cases over the previous year. Conclusion The seasonal trend model fully considers the long-term trend and the seasonal epidemic characteristics of the epidemic. The fitting data of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in China in recent years are good and can be used for short-term prediction.