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本研究试图探析日本的经济增长率与其边际间接税率和边际直接税率之间的内在关系。利用1955~2013年间经过季节调整的季度数据,研究发现,日本的边际间接税率在1976年前呈下降之势而其后趋于上升;边际直接税率则在日本泡沫经济崩溃后持续下降。边际税率与日本的实际经济增长率之间存在着长期均衡的协整关系。格兰杰非因果关系检验显示:边际税率在短期内并不是日本经济增长率的格兰杰原因;但在长期,无论边际间接税率还是边际直接税率都会对日本经济产生负面影响。由此,提高消费税率有损于日本的长期经济增长,可行的财政政策应当是在减税的同时降低政府的财政支出。
This study attempts to explore the intrinsic relationship between Japan’s economic growth rate and its marginal indirect tax rate and marginal direct tax rate. Using seasonally adjusted quarterly data from 1955 to 2013, the study found that the marginal indirect tax rate in Japan showed a downward trend before 1976 and then tends to rise. The marginal direct tax rate continued to decline after the Japanese bubble economy collapsed. There is a long-term and balanced cointegration relationship between the marginal tax rate and Japan’s real economic growth rate. Granger non-causality test shows that: marginal tax rate in the short term is not the Granger reason for Japan’s economic growth rate; but in the long run, both the marginal indirect tax rate and the marginal direct tax rate will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy. As a result, raising the consumption tax rate is detrimental to Japan’s long-term economic growth. A viable fiscal policy should reduce the government’s fiscal expenditure while reducing taxes.