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目的利用现有政府公布的统计数据,建立三种预测模型,预测2016-2020年湖南省卫生人力资源配置的需求情况。方法利用湖南省卫生统计摘要中收集的2002-2013年湖南省医院人员数、执业医师数、执业助理医师数及护士数,采用SPSS 21.0、SAS 9.2和Excel 2007构建、拟合和评估线性回归模型、曲线回归模型和灰色模型,从中选择最优拟合模型,对2016-2020年湖南省医院所需的医院人员、执业医师、执业助理医师和护士人数进行预测。结果采用预测模型灰色模型(珋e±s(%)=2.99±2.15),指数模型(^Y=2.29E-40×e0.05x),线性模型(^Y=-4.93E7+24 643.75x),灰色模型(^Y(t)=439 123.94×e0.10(t-1)-386 044.94)对2016-2020年湖南省医院人员数等卫生人力资源需求情况进行科学预测。预测结果为2016-2020年湖南省医院人员数、执业医师数、注册护士人数逐年增长,到2020年,医院人员数达到331 775人,比2013年增长49.1%,执业医师数达到131 203人,比2013年增长39.4%,注册护士数达到272 352人,比2013年增长116.6%。但执业助理医师数所需人数2020年为24 644人,比2013年减少35.2%。结论 2016-2020年湖南省卫生人力资源所需数量呈逐年增加趋势,该预测结果可为湖南省“十三五”规划期间卫生人力资源的配置提供科学的参考依据。
Objective To establish the three prediction models by using the statistical data published by the government and forecast the demand for human resources in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2020. Methods Using the data of hospital staff, number of practicing doctors, number of practicing assistant doctors and nurses collected in Hunan Province’s health statistics abstracts from 2002 to 2013, SPSS 21.0, SAS 9.2 and Excel 2007 were used to construct and fit the linear regression model , Curve regression model and gray model, select the best fit model to predict the number of hospital staff, practicing doctors, assistant practicing doctors and nurses required by Hunan Provincial Hospital from 2016 to 2020. Results The gray model (珋 e ± s (%) = 2.99 ± 2.15), the exponential model (Y = 2.29E-40 × e0.05x) and the linear model (Y = -4.93E7 + 24 643.75x) , Gray model (Y (t) = 439 123.94 × e0.10 (t-1) -386 044.94) to make a scientific forecast on the demand for health human resources such as the number of hospital staff in Hunan Province during 2016-2020. The forecast result shows that the number of hospital staff, licensed doctors and registered nurses in Hunan Province will increase year by year in 2016-2020. By 2020, the number of hospital staff members will reach 331,775, an increase of 49.1% over 2013 and the number of practicing doctors will reach 131,203, An increase of 39.4% over 2013 and the number of registered nurses reached 272,352, an increase of 116.6% over 2013. However, the number of practicing assistant physicians required was 24,644 in 2020, a 35.2% decrease from 2013. Conclusions The number of human resources for health in Hunan Province is increasing year by year from 2016 to 2020. The results of this prediction can provide scientific reference for the allocation of human resources for health during the “13th Five-Year Plan” in Hunan Province.