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不确定因素多,是2002年中国经济的最重要特征。不确定因素就是变数。不利的因素有变数,有利的因素也有变数。 左右2002年中国经济的变数至少有十个:国际经济环境的变数(对外贸易的变数),“培育内需”的变数、国债发行规模的变数、投融资体制改革的变数、货币政策的变数、结构调整的变数、国企改革的变数、农民收入增加的变数、税收政采的变数,证券市场的变数。 变数多,变动幅度就大。2002年中国经济增长率也是个幅度很大的变数,很可能是在5—7％之间。是五是六还是七,取决于十大变数的耦合,也取决于务实的程度。 在全球经济增长只有百分之一点几的局面下,5％已相当不低。过于偏好高指标,过度使用“兴奋剂”,是个可怕的误区。经济增长的质量和效益与速度同样重要。
With many uncertainties, it is the most important feature of China’s economy in 2002. Uncertainty is the variable. Adverse factors have variables, there are also favorable factors variables. There are at least ten variables in the Chinese economy in 2002: the variables of the international economic environment (variables of foreign trade), the variables of “cultivating domestic demand”, the variables of the scale of the issuance of government bonds, the variables of reform in the investment and financing system, the variables of monetary policy, and the structure Variables of adjustment, variables of state-owned enterprise reform, variables of increase of peasants’ income, variables of political and taxation of taxes, variables of securities market. Variables and changes in magnitude. China’s economic growth rate in 2002 is also a very large variable, probably between 5-7%. Whether five or six or seven, depending on the coupling of the top ten variables, also depends on the pragmatic level. In the context of the global economic growth of only a few percent, 5% is quite low. Too much preference for high targets and excessive use of “doping” is a terrible mistake. The quality and effectiveness of economic growth are just as important as the speed.