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具有对抗性的群体突发事件给社会造成极大的危害.由于该类突发事件发生的时间、模式、方式、后果等均具有不确定性,给应急决策增加了很大的难度.在分析具有对抗性群体突发事件特征及其应急决策各要素的基础上,采用马尔可夫状态转移过程的理论模型,定义了两个具有对抗性群体突发事件应急决策Decision-Ⅰ和应急决策Decision-Ⅱ,分析了Decision-Ⅰ和Decision-Ⅱ间的内涵关系,证明了Decision-Ⅰ可以转化为Decision-Ⅱ决策、Decision-Ⅱ的最优应急决策策略适用于Decision-Ⅰ决策等结论.进一步给出并证明了Decision-Ⅱ决策最优稳妥策略的存在性.最后通过一个算例计算分析,验证了Decision-Ⅰ和Decision-Ⅱ模型的有效性和实用性.
Confrontational group emergencies have caused great harm to the society.Because of the uncertainties of the time, mode, method and consequence of such emergencies, it is very difficult to emergency decision-making.In the analysis Based on the characteristics of emergent events and the elements of emergency decision-making, this paper defines two emergency response Decision-Ⅰ and emergency decision-making of emergency group with antagonistic population by using the theoretical model of Markov state transition process, Ⅱ. The connotation relation between Decision-Ⅰ and Decision-Ⅱ is analyzed, and it is proved that Decision-Ⅰ can be transformed into Decision-Ⅱ decision, and Decision-Ⅱ’s optimal emergency decision-making strategy is suitable for Decision-Ⅰ decision. And proves the existence of the optimal optimal strategy for decision-Ⅱ decision.Finally, the validity and practicability of the Decision-Ⅰ and Decision-Ⅱ models are verified by an example calculation and analysis.