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泥石流危险性评价是泥石流灾害防治中的首要任务。基于突变理论的观点,对泥石流发生频率、泥沙补给段长度比、24 h最大降雨量等9项危险因子进行分析,并综合考虑各危险因子之间的相关性。对危险因子进行分类并排序,建立多层突变理论评价模型,模型合理地反映泥石流灾害系统的内在机制。运用提出的模型对清香坪泥石流沟进行了评价,评价结果表明该泥石流沟属于中度危险。这与刘希林灰色关联度模型评价结果一致,说明该评价模型是有效的,可为泥石流灾害的预防提供依据。
Debris flow hazard assessment is the foremost task in debris flow disaster prevention and control. Based on the catastrophe theory, nine risk factors such as the frequency of debris flow, length ratio of sediment supply section and maximum rainfall of 24 h were analyzed, and the correlation among risk factors was comprehensively considered. The risk factors are classified and sorted, and a multi-layer catastrophe theory evaluation model is established. The model reasonably reflects the inherent mechanism of the debris flow disaster system. The proposed model was used to evaluate the Qingliupou debris flow ditch. The evaluation results show that the debris flow ditch belongs to moderate risk. This is consistent with the evaluation result of the gray relational degree model of Liu Xilin, which shows that the evaluation model is effective and can provide the basis for the prevention of debris flow disaster.