分析了有向网络上灾害扩散的动态模型,将模型演化的最终形态分为系统稳定、波动与崩溃3种情形.以节点的修复率作为衡量灾害扩散程度的量化指标,探讨了在指数可调的有向无标度网络上,灾害随时间的扩散情况以及自修复因子和节点阈值对灾害扩散的影响.仿真结果表明,自修复因子存在2个临界值,对应着系统的3种状态之间的转换.随着无标度网络幂律指数的增大,灾害扩散程度降低.最后,利用网络节点的集线中心权重指标建立了灾害预防与控制策略. This paper analyzes the dynamic model of disasters spreading on the directed network and divides the final model of evolution into three kinds of situations: system stability, fluctuation and collapse.With the restoration rate of nodes as the quantitative index to measure the degree of disaster diffusion, , The diffusion of disasters over time and the influence of self-healing factors and node thresholds on disasters are analyzed.The simulation results show that there are two thresholds for self-healing factors, which correspond to the three states of the system .With the increase of power-law index of scale-free network, the degree of disaster diffusion is reduced.Finally, disaster prevention and control strategies are established by using the center-weighted index of network nodes.