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降水是区域水资源形成的主要影响因素,其时空变化趋势也直接影响着各种生态系统的结构、服务功能及空间分布与演变。降水时空变异分析是认识区域水资源形成与时空演变的主要手段和方法。本文利用滇池流域及周边雨量站逐月数据,采用回归分析、距平、空间相关性分析、Mann-Kendall检验、Co-kriging插值及交叉验证等方法,对1953-1987年和2007-2012年2个时序系列的时空变异特征分析结果表明:(1)1953-1987年春、秋和冬季降水量有升高趋势,夏季呈减少趋势,但各季节的增减趋势不显著,2007-2012年春、夏、冬季呈减少趋势,秋季为增加趋势,近期降水量明显有减少趋势;(2)1953-1987年流域降水量呈现增加趋势(11.12 mm/10a),大致经历下降-上升-下降过程,2007-2012年流域降水量呈显著的锯齿状减少趋势,处于枯水期;(3)1953-1987年各时段的雨量主要呈现负相关性(不显著),2007-2012年间呈现正相关性,通过LISA统计分析认为,空间异质性随地理位置和时间而变化;(4)年均降水量与雨季降水量的空间分布特征基本相似,出现2个降水高值区和2个低值区对顶分布态势。但在2007-2012年,降水量的高值范围有所减少,低值区范围相应有所扩大。
Precipitation is the main factor that affects the formation of regional water resources. Its temporal and spatial variation also directly affects the structure, service functions, spatial distribution and evolution of various ecosystems. Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation is the Main Means and Methods for Understanding the Formation and Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Regional Water Resources. In this paper, monthly data of rainfall stations in Dianchi Lake Basin and its surrounding areas are used to analyze the monthly rainfall data from 1953-1987 and 2007-2012 with regression analysis, anomaly, spatial correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Co-kriging interpolation and cross validation. The results of spatio-temporal variations of time series showed that: (1) Precipitation increased in spring, autumn and winter in 1953-1987 and decreased in summer, but not significant in all seasons. From spring 2007 to summer 2012 , The decreasing trend in winter and the increasing trend in autumn, the precipitation in recent years obviously decreased; (2) The precipitation in the basin increased with the increase of 11.12 mm / 10a from 1953 to 1987, (3) Rainfall in each period from 1953 to 1987 was negatively correlated (insignificantly), showing a positive correlation between 2007 and 2012. By LISA statistical analysis It is considered that the spatial heterogeneity varies with the geographical location and time. (4) The spatial distribution characteristics of the annual precipitation and the precipitation in the rainy season are basically similar, with two top-level precipitation and two low-value areas. However, during 2007-2012, the range of high values of precipitation decreased and the scope of low values expanded correspondingly.