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根据国内外研究学者文献调研结果,从发展历程上将降雨径流模型思想划分为推理法、单位水文线法、概念性降雨径流模型和基于物理机制的径流模拟等4类,并逐一介绍了其提出背景、建模目的及主要内容和特点。根据国内外最新研究成果,在其他学者提出的分布式水文模型的深入探讨、降水径流污染模型与GIS/RS技术的结合、模型模拟结果的不确定性研究等降雨径流模型发展方向的基础上,指出了基于数据驱动的模型的发展、对水文机理和水流路径的追踪研究、模型专家的多方合作及模型集成研究等也是降雨径流模型发展的重要方向。
According to the research results of domestic and foreign researchers, this paper divides the idea of rainfall runoff into four categories: reasoning method, unit hydrological line method, conceptual rainfall runoff model and runoff simulation based on physical mechanism. Background, modeling purposes and main content and features. According to the latest research results both at home and abroad, based on the further development of distributed hydrological models proposed by other scholars, the combination of precipitation runoff pollution model and GIS / RS technology and the uncertainty study of model simulation results, It points out the development of data-driven model, the follow-up research on hydrological mechanism and water flow path, the multi-cooperation of model experts and the research of model integration, which are also important directions for the development of rainfall runoff model.