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证券市场是一个复杂系统,而证券市场泡沫正是这个复杂系统演化运动的直接产物。在这样一种演化背景下,本文以演化博弈理论为理论依据,建立信息博弈分析框架,并构建演化博弈复制动态模型。然后,通过对模型的仿真分析,试图解释证券市场作为市场泡沫的形成、发展和破裂的循环演化过程。研究结果表明:适度的噪声交易能够保证市场的流动性;噪声交易者的操纵和跟风行为是造成市场泡沫形成和发展的重要原因,而噪声交易者和理性交易者之间的相互转换,导致了市场泡沫的破裂。
The stock market is a complex system, and the stock market bubble is the direct product of the evolution of this complex system. In such an evolutionary context, this article based on evolutionary game theory as a theoretical basis, the establishment of information game analysis framework, and build evolutionary game replication dynamic model. Then, through the simulation analysis of the model, it attempts to explain the cycle evolution of the securities market as the formation, development and breakdown of the market bubble. The results show that moderate noise trading can ensure market liquidity. Noise traders’ manipulation and follow-up behavior are the important reasons for the formation and development of market bubble. The mutual conversion between noise traders and rational traders leads to Market bubble burst.