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在克拉玛依市林间对春尺蠖的羽化数量动态进行监测,并将主要气象因子对春尺蠖成虫始见日到高峰日的羽化数量动态的影响进行了系统分析。相关分析表明,春尺蠖成虫羽化数量与土壤温度、土壤相对湿度、空气温度、露点温度相关密切,与降雨等因子相关甚微。通径分析和决策系统分析表明,土壤相对湿度对春尺蠖成虫羽化数量具有正效应,是直接影响春尺蠖羽化动态的重要指标,露点温度是影响春尺蠖成虫羽化数量的主要限制因素。逐步回归分析表明,土壤温度、土壤相对湿度、露点温度是影响春尺蠖成虫羽化动态的主要气象因子。基于偏相关分析,应用主要气象因子与春尺蠖成虫羽化数量直接建立的多元回归方程,经过实测羽化数量与多元回归模拟值的对比得出,实测羽化数量与预测羽化数量关系密切,则此模型适用于预测春尺蠖成虫的羽化数量。
In the forest of Karamay, the number of eclosion was monitored, and the main meteorological factors were analyzed systematically on the number of eclosion of the spring primrose. Correlation analysis showed that the emergence quantity of adult adults was closely related to soil temperature, soil relative humidity, air temperature and dew point temperature, but little correlation with precipitation and other factors. Path analysis and decision system analysis showed that soil relative humidity had a positive effect on the emergence number of adult adults, which was an important index that directly affected the eclosion dynamics. The dew point temperature was the main limiting factor affecting the emergence number of adults. Stepwise regression analysis showed that soil temperature, soil relative humidity and dew point temperature were the main meteorological factors that affected the eclosion dynamics of adults. Based on the partial correlation analysis, the multivariate regression equation established directly by the main meteorological factors and the eclosion numbers of adults in the spring ichthyoplankton was compared. The comparison between the measured eclosion numbers and the multivariate regression results showed that the actual feather number is closely related to the predicted eclosion number. Predict the emergence of adults in spring ichthyosis.