2013年,全球经济或将维持弱势复苏,货币政策方面仍以适度宽松为主。我们预计,2013年铅市场重心将小幅上移,滞涨抗跌或成铅市主基调。在全球主要经济体经济缓慢复苏的背景下,2012年金属市场整体维持宽幅震荡格局。欧债危机再生变数、美国新的量化宽松政策刺激、超跌后的成本支撑等各方面因素共同作用于铅市场,国际铅价最高上行至2346美元/吨,最低也曾刷新前一年度的低点下行至1742美元/吨。相对外盘偏弱的沪铅总体在14400～16600元/吨区间波动。2013年,我们对经济的总体看法是全球经济将维持弱势复苏, In 2013, the global economy will maintain a weak recovery and the monetary policy is still mainly modest easing. We expect the lead market will move slightly upwards in 2013, defying stagflation or becoming a market leader. In the context of the slow recovery of the economies of the world’s major economies, the metal market as a whole maintained a wide shock pattern in 2012. The European debt crisis rebirth variable, the United States to stimulate the new quantitative easing policy, oversold cost support and other factors together lead the lead in the market, the highest international lead up to 2346 US dollars / ton, the lowest has also been refreshing the previous year’s low Down to 1742 US dollars / ton. Relatively weak outer lead Shanghai lead overall 14400 ~ 16600 yuan / ton range fluctuations. In 2013, our general view on the economy was that the global economy will maintain a weak recovery,