论文部分内容阅读
Peace， power， and politics—the three forces make for a delicate balance. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe put an exclamation point on his political comeback since resigning from the post in September 2007， leading his party to a landslide victory in Japan’s upper house elections on July 22. As the ruling coalition took a majority in both houses， Abe will become the most powerful Japanese prime minister in the last six years. But whether his newfound power will be used to raise Japan out of its economic recession or to lash out against its neighbors has yet to be determined.
Triumph
After running through seven prime ministers in the past seven years， Japan is set to end the string of power shifts—for now， at least. Japan’s ruling coalition， the Liberal Democratic Party（LDP） and the New Komeito Party， won 76 of the 121 seats up for grabs in the upper house election. Along with the uncontested 59， the ruling bloc has a total of 135 seats in the 242-seat chamber. The ruling camp also holds an overwhelming majority in the more powerful lower house. The elections put an end to the so-called “twisted parliament” and cemented a solid base for Abe’s long-term administrative goals. With the ruling coalition’s overwhelming majorities in parliament， Abe is unlikely to face another election until 2016. Chinese observers credited the election results to voters’ hopes for an economic recovery.
Wang Taiping， a research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies， said voters turned out to support the LDP in the upper house elections after a poor performance by the Democratic Party of Japan on domestic and diplomatic affairs during its ruling term from 2009 to 2012. Moreover， Abe has pressed hard on territorial disputes with China to win rightwing and conservative voters. Wang noted that Abe had been campaigning on an economic revival plan known as “Abenomics，” which rapidly gained the support of voters.
Abenomics is essentially made up of “three arrows”： pressuring the Bank of Japan to launch unprecedented monetary easing and setting a target of 2 percent inflation to support a target of 2 percent real GDP growth （4 percent nomi- nal growth）； a deficit-financed supplemental government budget filled with new public works spending； and a host of reforms to achieve growth through stimulating private investment.
The ruling coalition’s victory can be traced to before the elections， as the Abe administration’s approval rating reached a record high of 60 percent， said Zhang Hong， a researcher with the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. She added that after seven years of revolving-door-like power shifts between a series of prime ministers， Japanese voters are desperate for a lasting and powerful government. Liu Rui， a researcher on Japanese economic studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences （CASS）， noted the impact of the LDP’s message to voters during the election campaign： Abenomics， the party said， aims to stimulate the economy and combat longterm inflation. He said the first two “arrows” can stimulate consumption and investment quickly by spurring demand. Though they fall short of promoting long-term growth， they win time for Abenomics’ third policy tool—the economic growth strategy， said Liu. With Abenomics’ im-pact on market confidence and public support， the LDP gains at least three years for the Abe administration to implement the full economic stimulus package.
Wu Huaizhong， a Japanese political studies researcher with the CASS， claimed the election results cemented the country’s rightward trend， providing a relatively stable political basis for the Abe administration to implement its conservative policies. “Abe has a historic opportunity to realize Japan’s political and economic revival and adopt aggressive domestic and diplomatic policies，” Wu said. “The success or failure of these policies will greatly influence Japan， the greater region and even international society.”
Uncertainties
Abe is now preparing to address three major tasks： economic revival， constitutional revision and foreign policy. His administration is at a crossroads that might determine Japan’s fate. Depending on the course chosen， Abe could either resume Japan’s economic revival or steer the country toward dangerous right-wing territory.
At a press conference on July 22， Abe said that he will try to make Japanese people feel the recovery of the nation’s economy. He promised that he and his ruling LDP are resolute in implementing economic policies to revitalize the stagnant economy.
The third Abenomics “arrow” of stimulating economic growth packs the most punch， said Liu. With Abe’s plans to conduct the second round of his economic growth strategy set for September， the coming few months will be a crucial period that may determine Japan’s economic and political future. Liu said the Abe administration is adopting quantitative easing to stimulate the economy in addition to deregulation and economic restructuring. However， the LDP’s victory brought an increased proportion of parliamentarians representing privileged interests， which could resist economic structure reforms and cause divergence inside the ruling coalition， he added. Constitutional revision is another key issue in the pipeline. The LDP needs to first amend Article 96 of the Constitution， which states that a constitutional amendment must be initiated by the parliament if two thirds or more of all members of the upper and lower houses vote for it.
Observers worried that the LDP’s ultimate goal in the constitutional revision process is to alter Article 9， which prohibits Japan from declaring war. Doing so would radically alter Japan’s post-World War II political and military status quo. However， some senior politicians—including those in the LDP’s partner， the New Komeito Party—have admitted that the time is not right to pursue such an agenda. Abe’s tough stance on territorial and historical issues for the past few months has put a strain on Japan’s relationships with its neighbors—China， Russia and South Korea.
Zhang Yong， a researcher on China-Japan relations at the CASS， asserted that constitutional revision is among the stated goals of the post-election Abe administration. With the ruling coalition’s majorities in both houses， the issue of amending Japan’s Constitution is set to reemerge. “Amending the Constitution poses a question that tests the Japanese leadership’s wisdom，” said Zhang. He added that if the LDP insists on denying history， it is certain to meet with problems in the future.
Yang Bojiang， a senior research fellow on Japanese studies with the CASS， said Japan will try to strengthen itself under the framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance. “Although conservatives in Washington and Tokyo agreed on strengthening Japan’s defensive strength， their focuses are quite different，” said Yang. While the U.S. side requires Japan to better coordinate with U.S. strategic concerns， Japan stresses its self-defense capability. Abe’s aggressive policy could lead to a deep rift with Washington. Furthermore， the United States will not allow Japan to scrap the history and status of the postwar political system. The two sides also disagree on other issues such as agricultural subsidies and tariffs in Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade negotiations and U.S. military bases in Okinawa.
Observers believe relations with China will be a crucial part of Abe’s diplomatic policy. After the elections， Abe said he hoped to see both countries work together to overcome difficulties by carrying out high-level talks. However， he set a precondition that China must deny there are disputes over the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands， which the Chinese side will never accept. Wu said Abe’s China policy will not change much anytime soon. First， Abe will not easily compromise on the Diaoyu Islands issue， because he needs the excuse of the “China threat” to push forward his political agendas like constitutional revision and military normalization. Moreover， he believes the Diaoyu Islands can be used as a strategic chip against China.“Abe is aware that Japan’s economic revival greatly relies on economic cooperation with China. To sustain a long-term administration， Japan must maintain stable bilateral relations， especially in the economic area，” said Wu. “He will try to balance cooperation and containment as his China policy， so there will not be a true relaxation of bilateral relations.”
Chinese observers will be keeping a close eye on Abe’s words and actions on August 15， the day marking Japan’s defeat in World War II. However， the hawkish prime minister said recently that he will show his respect to those who fought for the country， referring to the issue of visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine， which honors Japanese war dead and 14 war criminals of World War II. Some Japanese politicians opposed the risky act. Natsuo Yamaguchi， leader of the New Komeito Party， said that Abe should refrain from visiting the shrine and recognize the sentiment of Japan’s neighboring countries.
“China and Japan are approaching the Yasukuni Shrine very cautiously. But if Abe pays worship at the shrine on August 15， it will have a strongly negative influence on China-Japan relations，” said Yang.
Political power is now firmly in the hands of Abe. Whether he will use it to stand for peace is a question yet to be answered.
Triumph
After running through seven prime ministers in the past seven years， Japan is set to end the string of power shifts—for now， at least. Japan’s ruling coalition， the Liberal Democratic Party（LDP） and the New Komeito Party， won 76 of the 121 seats up for grabs in the upper house election. Along with the uncontested 59， the ruling bloc has a total of 135 seats in the 242-seat chamber. The ruling camp also holds an overwhelming majority in the more powerful lower house. The elections put an end to the so-called “twisted parliament” and cemented a solid base for Abe’s long-term administrative goals. With the ruling coalition’s overwhelming majorities in parliament， Abe is unlikely to face another election until 2016. Chinese observers credited the election results to voters’ hopes for an economic recovery.
Wang Taiping， a research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies， said voters turned out to support the LDP in the upper house elections after a poor performance by the Democratic Party of Japan on domestic and diplomatic affairs during its ruling term from 2009 to 2012. Moreover， Abe has pressed hard on territorial disputes with China to win rightwing and conservative voters. Wang noted that Abe had been campaigning on an economic revival plan known as “Abenomics，” which rapidly gained the support of voters.
Abenomics is essentially made up of “three arrows”： pressuring the Bank of Japan to launch unprecedented monetary easing and setting a target of 2 percent inflation to support a target of 2 percent real GDP growth （4 percent nomi- nal growth）； a deficit-financed supplemental government budget filled with new public works spending； and a host of reforms to achieve growth through stimulating private investment.
The ruling coalition’s victory can be traced to before the elections， as the Abe administration’s approval rating reached a record high of 60 percent， said Zhang Hong， a researcher with the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. She added that after seven years of revolving-door-like power shifts between a series of prime ministers， Japanese voters are desperate for a lasting and powerful government. Liu Rui， a researcher on Japanese economic studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences （CASS）， noted the impact of the LDP’s message to voters during the election campaign： Abenomics， the party said， aims to stimulate the economy and combat longterm inflation. He said the first two “arrows” can stimulate consumption and investment quickly by spurring demand. Though they fall short of promoting long-term growth， they win time for Abenomics’ third policy tool—the economic growth strategy， said Liu. With Abenomics’ im-pact on market confidence and public support， the LDP gains at least three years for the Abe administration to implement the full economic stimulus package.
Wu Huaizhong， a Japanese political studies researcher with the CASS， claimed the election results cemented the country’s rightward trend， providing a relatively stable political basis for the Abe administration to implement its conservative policies. “Abe has a historic opportunity to realize Japan’s political and economic revival and adopt aggressive domestic and diplomatic policies，” Wu said. “The success or failure of these policies will greatly influence Japan， the greater region and even international society.”
Uncertainties
Abe is now preparing to address three major tasks： economic revival， constitutional revision and foreign policy. His administration is at a crossroads that might determine Japan’s fate. Depending on the course chosen， Abe could either resume Japan’s economic revival or steer the country toward dangerous right-wing territory.
At a press conference on July 22， Abe said that he will try to make Japanese people feel the recovery of the nation’s economy. He promised that he and his ruling LDP are resolute in implementing economic policies to revitalize the stagnant economy.
The third Abenomics “arrow” of stimulating economic growth packs the most punch， said Liu. With Abe’s plans to conduct the second round of his economic growth strategy set for September， the coming few months will be a crucial period that may determine Japan’s economic and political future. Liu said the Abe administration is adopting quantitative easing to stimulate the economy in addition to deregulation and economic restructuring. However， the LDP’s victory brought an increased proportion of parliamentarians representing privileged interests， which could resist economic structure reforms and cause divergence inside the ruling coalition， he added. Constitutional revision is another key issue in the pipeline. The LDP needs to first amend Article 96 of the Constitution， which states that a constitutional amendment must be initiated by the parliament if two thirds or more of all members of the upper and lower houses vote for it.
Observers worried that the LDP’s ultimate goal in the constitutional revision process is to alter Article 9， which prohibits Japan from declaring war. Doing so would radically alter Japan’s post-World War II political and military status quo. However， some senior politicians—including those in the LDP’s partner， the New Komeito Party—have admitted that the time is not right to pursue such an agenda. Abe’s tough stance on territorial and historical issues for the past few months has put a strain on Japan’s relationships with its neighbors—China， Russia and South Korea.
Zhang Yong， a researcher on China-Japan relations at the CASS， asserted that constitutional revision is among the stated goals of the post-election Abe administration. With the ruling coalition’s majorities in both houses， the issue of amending Japan’s Constitution is set to reemerge. “Amending the Constitution poses a question that tests the Japanese leadership’s wisdom，” said Zhang. He added that if the LDP insists on denying history， it is certain to meet with problems in the future.
Yang Bojiang， a senior research fellow on Japanese studies with the CASS， said Japan will try to strengthen itself under the framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance. “Although conservatives in Washington and Tokyo agreed on strengthening Japan’s defensive strength， their focuses are quite different，” said Yang. While the U.S. side requires Japan to better coordinate with U.S. strategic concerns， Japan stresses its self-defense capability. Abe’s aggressive policy could lead to a deep rift with Washington. Furthermore， the United States will not allow Japan to scrap the history and status of the postwar political system. The two sides also disagree on other issues such as agricultural subsidies and tariffs in Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade negotiations and U.S. military bases in Okinawa.
Observers believe relations with China will be a crucial part of Abe’s diplomatic policy. After the elections， Abe said he hoped to see both countries work together to overcome difficulties by carrying out high-level talks. However， he set a precondition that China must deny there are disputes over the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands， which the Chinese side will never accept. Wu said Abe’s China policy will not change much anytime soon. First， Abe will not easily compromise on the Diaoyu Islands issue， because he needs the excuse of the “China threat” to push forward his political agendas like constitutional revision and military normalization. Moreover， he believes the Diaoyu Islands can be used as a strategic chip against China.“Abe is aware that Japan’s economic revival greatly relies on economic cooperation with China. To sustain a long-term administration， Japan must maintain stable bilateral relations， especially in the economic area，” said Wu. “He will try to balance cooperation and containment as his China policy， so there will not be a true relaxation of bilateral relations.”
Chinese observers will be keeping a close eye on Abe’s words and actions on August 15， the day marking Japan’s defeat in World War II. However， the hawkish prime minister said recently that he will show his respect to those who fought for the country， referring to the issue of visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine， which honors Japanese war dead and 14 war criminals of World War II. Some Japanese politicians opposed the risky act. Natsuo Yamaguchi， leader of the New Komeito Party， said that Abe should refrain from visiting the shrine and recognize the sentiment of Japan’s neighboring countries.
“China and Japan are approaching the Yasukuni Shrine very cautiously. But if Abe pays worship at the shrine on August 15， it will have a strongly negative influence on China-Japan relations，” said Yang.
Political power is now firmly in the hands of Abe. Whether he will use it to stand for peace is a question yet to be answered.