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依托福州地铁1号线盾构隧道下穿既有轨道工程实例,建立造成轨道变形的主要风险因素的故障树模型.通过运用故障树分析方法对轨道变形的风险进行定量分析,得出轨道变形事故的发生概率及故障树底事件的重要度.并在评估底事件发生概率的模糊性上采用专家判断法结合模糊集理论的方法.该方法为地铁盾构隧道下穿既有轨道的风险控制提供参考.
Relying on the Fuzhou Metro Line 1 shield tunnel under the existing track engineering examples, the establishment of the main risk factors causing rail deformation fault tree model.Through the use of fault tree analysis of the risk of rail deformation quantitative analysis of rail deformation accidents And the importance of fault tree events.And the method of expert judgment combined with fuzzy set theory is used to evaluate the fuzziness of the occurrence probability of the bottom event.This method provides the risk control of subway shield tunnel under existing tracks reference.