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利用新疆101个气象台站1961-2014年逐日气温资料,以日平均气温稳定≤5℃为冬季采暖临界温度,使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验以及基于Arc GIS的空间插值技术,对冬季采暖期日数和采暖强度时空变化及其对气候变暖的响应,以及气候变暖对采暖能耗的可能影响进行了研究。结果表明:新疆采暖期日数和采暖强度总体呈现“北疆多,南疆少;山区多,平原和盆地少”的空间分布特点。近54a新疆年平均气温和冬半年平均气温分别以0.29℃/10a和0.36℃/10a的倾向率呈极显著(P<0.001)的上升趋势,受其影响,采暖期日数和采暖强度分别以-2.25d/10a和-53.86℃·d/10a的倾向率呈极显著(P<0.001)的减小趋势,并分别于1997年和1988年发生了突变,突变后较其之前,全疆平均采暖期日数缩短9.1d,采暖强度减小192.6℃·d,采暖能耗降低11.6%。
Based on the daily temperature data of 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2014, the daily average temperature is stable at ≤5 ℃, which is the critical temperature for winter heating. Using linear trend analysis, accumulated anomaly and t-test and spatial interpolation technique based on Arc GIS, The spatial and temporal variations of the number of heating days and heating intensity and their response to climate warming, as well as the possible impact of climate warming on heating energy consumption, were studied. The results showed that: the days of heating and heating intensity in Xinjiang generally showed the spatial distribution characteristics of “more in northern Xinjiang, less in southern Xinjiang; more in mountainous areas, less in plains and basins”. The average annual temperature in the past 54 years and the average temperature in the winter of the year showed an extremely significant (P <0.001) upward trend with the trend rates of 0.29 ℃ / 10a and 0.36 ℃ / 10a, respectively. Affected by these factors, the days of heating and heating intensity were - The tendency of 2.25d / 10a and -53.86 ℃ · d / 10a tended to decrease very significantly (P <0.001), and they mutated in 1997 and 1988, respectively. Before the mutation, the average heating rate in Xinjiang The number of days was shortened 9.1d, the heating intensity was reduced by 192.6 ℃ · d, and the heating energy consumption was reduced by 11.6%.