运用时变参数状态空间模型对我国改革开放三十年来物价、利率与收入对农村和城镇居民消费需求影响的动态特征进行了研究。发现物价、收入对农村和城镇居民的消费需求弹性不同,农村消费需求受收入影响较大,而城市居民消费需求受物价影响较大;利率对农村和城镇居民消费需求影响不显著,利率机制目前还不是调解中国消费需求的理想工具。在此基础上给出了相应的政策建议。 The dynamic characteristics of the impact of price, interest rate and income on the consumer demand of rural residents and urban residents in China over the 30 years of reform and opening up were studied by using the time-varying parameter state-space model. It is found that the demand elasticity of prices and incomes is different from that of rural residents and urban residents. The consumer demand in rural areas is greatly affected by income while the consumer demand of urban residents is greatly influenced by the price. The interest rate has no significant effect on the consumer demand of rural residents and urban residents. It is not yet an ideal tool for mediating China’s consumer demand. On this basis, the corresponding policy recommendations are given.