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本文综合运用面板聚类分析、面板协整分析、静态面板分析和动态面板分析四种方法对FDI、进出口贸易与碳排放之间的定量关系进行了多角度的探讨。通过收集1997-2011年全国28个省市的FDI、进出口贸易的面板数据,运用面板聚类的方法将全国28个省市根据开放程度分成3个类型。进而运用面板协整检验证明了在各类地区,FDI、进出口贸易、碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系。进而构造静态面板模型和动态面板模型,研究发现碳排放自身有明显的示范效应,FDI对碳排放的影响随着技术溢出的不断深化,逐渐起到改善环境的作用,并且模型结论不支持“污染天堂”假说。进出口贸易对碳排放的影响在不同开放程度的地区有明显的区域性差异。
In this paper, we use panel cluster analysis, panel cointegration analysis, static panel analysis and dynamic panel analysis to explore the quantitative relationship between FDI, import and export trade and carbon emissions. By collecting the panel data of FDI and import and export trade of 28 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2011, the 28 provinces and cities in China were divided into 3 types according to the degree of openness by means of panel clustering. And then using the panel cointegration test to prove that in all kinds of regions, FDI, import and export trade, there is a long-term equilibrium between carbon emissions. Then the static panel model and the dynamic panel model are constructed. The study finds that carbon emission has obvious demonstration effect. The impact of FDI on carbon emissions gradually improves the environment as technology spillover deepens, and the model conclusion does not support “ Pollution paradise ”hypothesis. Import and export trade on carbon emissions in different regions have obvious regional differences.