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商品期货在牛熊转换过程中多会出现价格过度波动的情况,且这种过度变化往往脱离经济基本面掌控,与市场上出现羊群行为有关。国内学者尚未对我国农产品价格出现巨幅变化条件下的羊群行为展开研究。本文以大豆、玉米、小麦、白糖、早籼稻和棉花为分析对象,并运用CSAD模型进行实证分析后发现,在2008年的下跌市场和整体市场以及2010年的上涨市场、下跌市场和整体市场中均存在羊群行为。据此,本文剖析了造成羊群行为的结构性和体制性原因,并提出了减少羊群行为的若干建议。
Commodity futures in the conversion process will be more than the price of excessive price volatility, and this excessive changes are often out of economic fundamentals control, and the emergence of herding on the market. Domestic scholars have not studied the herd behavior under the condition of huge change of agricultural product prices in our country. In this paper, soybean, corn, wheat, sugar, early indica rice and cotton as the analysis object and using CSAD model for empirical analysis found that in 2008, the decline in the market and the overall market, and in 2010 the rising market, falling market and the overall market Herd behavior exists. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the structural and institutional causes of herding behavior and puts forward some suggestions to reduce herding behavior.