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本文基于1950~2013年中国省级森林灾害数据,并结合历年林业投资信息,构造断点回归模型,考察了集体林枳制度改革对中国森林火灾次数和森林病虫害发生面积的影响。研究发现:在集体林权制度改革全面推行后,全国森林火灾次数的减幅高达52.66%~64.86%,而森林病虫害发生面积也减少了25.95%~38.23%;但是,政府防灾减灾投资却并未对森林防灾减灾产生显著的影响。本文研究表明,以明晰产权为核心的集体林权制度改革,有效地激励了林农的森林资源管护行为,这是集体林权制度改革的政策红利的重要方面。
Based on the data of provincial forest disasters from 1950 to 2013 in China and the past investment information of forestry, we constructed the break-point regression model to investigate the impact of the reform of collective forest Zhitian on the number of forest fires and the occurrence area of forest pests and diseases. The study found that after the full implementation of the reform of collective forest rights system, the reduction of the number of forest fires nationwide reached as high as 52.66% -64.86%, while the area of forest pests and diseases also decreased by 25.95% -38.23%. However, No significant impact on forest disaster prevention and mitigation. This study shows that the reform of the collective forest ownership system with the explicit property right as the core has effectively stimulated the forest farmers’ forest management and resources protection, which is an important aspect of the policy dividend of the collective forest tenure reform.