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在国内基本面偏弱的拖累下,天然橡胶市场继续呈现内弱外强的格局,不过后期市场关注重点更多在于宏观经济面。全球经济形势趋好已经达成共识,但通胀预期可能引发收缩流动性,经济政策面处于两难境地。不过对于天然橡胶市场来说,全球汽车业回暖是大势所趋,对橡胶消费形成中长期利好。同时随着停割期的逐渐到来,供应压力也将逐渐减弱,国内库存继续增加的空间有限,库存压力也将逐渐减小。综合多方面因素来看,尽管国内天然橡胶市场仍然压力重重,但在宏观大环境的支撑下,预计沪胶难以深幅回调,主力移仓至1003合约后,沪胶价格可能在20 000元上下波动。
Under the weak domestic fundamentals dragged down, the natural rubber market continues to show weak strong outside the pattern, but the latter part of the market focus more on the macroeconomic side. The global economic situation has reached a consensus, but inflation expectations may lead to contraction of liquidity, economic and policy aspects of the dilemma. However, for the natural rubber market, the global auto industry is the general trend of recovery, the formation of rubber consumption in the long-term positive. At the same time as the cessation of the gradual arrival of the supply pressure will gradually weakened, the domestic stock continues to increase the limited space, inventory pressure will gradually reduce. Comprehensive view of many factors, despite the pressure on the domestic natural rubber market is still heavy, but macroscopically the support of the environment is expected to Hujiao is difficult to deep callback, the main shift positions to 1003 contracts, the Hujiao prices may be up and down 20,000 yuan fluctuation.