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为反映山区农村公路危险性的实际情况,筛选影响交通安全的相关因素,建立山区农村公路路侧危险等级评价体系。基于集对分析(SPA)方法,引入能够体现系统确定性与不确定性的同异反联系度(IDC)的计算公式,并建立山区农村公路路侧危险等级评价的集对分析模型(SPAM)。模型从3个层次阐明评价过程中SPA的具体意义,并将多指标表示成一个能从总体上衡量道路危险性的n元联系数。用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,从主观和客观两方面定量计算山区农村公路危险程度。承德某山区农村公路的模型应用实例表明:SPAM模型充分利用研究问题所包含的不确定性信息,将辩证认识与定量描述有机结合起来,是山区农村公路复杂系统综合评价的一种新方法。
In order to reflect the actual situation of rural road hazard in mountainous area, the factors affecting traffic safety are screened, and the evaluation system of roadside hazard level in rural mountainous area is established. Based on the set pair analysis (SPA) method, the formula of IDC, which can reflect the certainty and uncertainty of the system, is introduced and the set-pair analysis model (SPAM) for evaluating the roadside hazard level of rural road in mountainous area is established. . The model elucidates the significance of SPA in the evaluation process from three levels and expresses the multi-index as a n-factor linkage which can measure the road hazard as a whole. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the index weight, from both subjective and objective aspects of quantitative calculation of mountainous rural road hazard level. The application of the model of rural road in a mountainous area in Chengde shows that the SPAM model makes full use of the uncertainty information contained in the research problem and combines dialectical knowledge and quantitative description. It is a new method for comprehensive evaluation of complex rural road system in mountainous areas.