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运用能值分析方法,对天津市1998—2007年能值流量进行动态定量分析,并对天津市可持续发展指数进行了变化趋势分析,在与其他地区比较的基础上,定量描述了天津市生态经济格局和发展状态的总体特征。结果表明:天津市2007年总能值用量中有89%是不可更新资源,实际人口为其承载人口的1.56倍,超过了402万;近10年中,天津市能值自给率从0.70下降到0.45,能值产出率从3.69下降到2.37,环境负荷率从1998年的4.33上升到2007年的14.45,可持续发展指数从1998年的0.85下降到2007年的0.16。系统高度依赖于反馈能值的投入,区域自身可持续发展能力低,天津市经济发展对生态系统的压力越来越大。最后对提高天津市可持续发展能力提出了对策建议。
Using the method of emergy analysis, this paper conducts a dynamic and quantitative analysis of the emergy flow in Tianjin from 1998 to 2007 and analyzes the changing trend of the sustainable development index in Tianjin. On the basis of comparison with other regions, this paper quantitatively describes the eco- The overall characteristics of economic structure and development status. The results showed that 89% of the total emergy in Tianjin in 2007 was non-renewable resources, the actual population was 1.56 times that of its carrying population, exceeding 4.20 million; in the past 10 years, the self-support value of energy value in Tianjin dropped from 0.70 0.45, the emergy output rate dropped from 3.69 to 2.37, the environmental load rate rose from 4.33 in 1998 to 14.45 in 2007, and the sustainable development index dropped from 0.85 in 1998 to 0.16 in 2007. The system is highly dependent on the input of feedback energy, and the region itself has low sustainable development capacity. The economic development in Tianjin is under increasing pressure on the ecosystem. Finally, some countermeasures are put forward to improve the capacity of sustainable development in Tianjin.