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今后一段时期,中国经济快速增长的基本趋势不会改变,目前的信贷增长还不至于马上引起如上世纪80年代中期、90年代初期那样的严重通货膨胀。但我们目前仍有必要及时采取预调、微调对策。现阶段,中央银行应继续选择稳定汇率的政策;密切关注信贷的增长,确保其增长速度不超过23%;慎用存款准备金政策,继续选用央行票据“对冲”操作;在保持人民币名义汇率不变的情况下,寻求改善我国汇率的市场生成机制。
In the coming period, the basic trend of China’s rapid economic growth will not change. The present credit growth will not immediately cause such serious inflation as in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. However, it is still necessary for us to make pre-adjustment and fine-tuning in a timely manner. At this stage, the central bank should continue to choose a policy of stabilizing the exchange rate; pay close attention to the growth of credit to ensure that its growth rate does not exceed 23%; use the deposit reserve policy with caution and continue to use the central bank bill “hedging” operation; Under the condition of the same exchange rate, it seeks to create a market mechanism to improve China’s exchange rate.