从传入和定殖可能性两方面分析了康沃尔疫霉(Phytophthora kernoviae)的风险性,并利用MAXENT生态位模型预测了其在我国的潜在适生区。结果表明:康沃尔疫霉(P.kernoviae)传入我国及其在我国南方沿海地区定殖具有高风险性,主要包括海南、广西、广东、福建、云南、台湾等省区,尤其花卉进出口基地云南省;上述地区应加强康沃尔疫霉(P.kernoviae)的检疫工作,实行严格的风险管理。 The risk of Phytophthora kernoviae was analyzed from the perspectives of its ability of introduction and colonization, and its potential niche area in China was predicted using the MAXENT niche model. The results showed that P.kernoviae introduced into China and its colonization in the southern coastal areas of China had high risk, mainly including Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Yunnan and Taiwan provinces, especially the flowers Export base in Yunnan Province; these areas should strengthen the quarantine work of P.kernoviae, strict risk management.