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用地震动力学研究已发生地震的时空分布及迁移规律与动力的关系,并将这种关系顺时间轴向未来进行外延,是探讨今后一个历史时期内地震活动趋势的重要方法。东亚大陆大震频度随时间分布的间歇性和升降规律、大震空间分布的纬向性和活动带走向、以及大震在各活动期中的迁移方向,都与地球自转角速度变化状态有关。因之,根据地球自转角速度随时间变化观测曲线进行拟合外延,外推得出今后的各种地球自转状态,可求得今后50年东亚大陆大震的活动趋势(大震活动高低潮时期划分和各期活动水平升降变化规律、频度沿纬度的分布各时段活动带的走向和危险地段、以及各危险时段中大震的时空迁移方向)。
Using seismic dynamics to study the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes that have occurred and the relationship between migration laws and power, and extending the relationship along the time axis in the future, are important methods for exploring the seismic activity trends in a historical period in the future. The intermittence and regularity of the distribution of major earthquakes over time in East Asia, the latitudinal and active zonation of the spatial distribution of large earthquakes, and the migration direction of large earthquakes in each active phase are all related to the changing angular velocity of Earth’s rotation. Therefore, based on the observation curves of the Earth’s rotation angular velocity with time, fitting the extension and deriving various future earth rotation states, the trend of earthquakes in East Asia during the next 50 years can be obtained And the regularity of movements and movements of various activities, the trends and dangerous locations of active zones at different time intervals along the latitude distribution, and the spatial and temporal migration directions of major earthquakes in each dangerous period).